It would be nice to repeat my performance from three years ago when I had Mon Mome on my shortlist of seven (and backed him at 149/1 on Betfair). The other five runners on my list were L'Ami, Comply Or Die, My Will, State Of Play and Brooklyn Brownie.. I kid you not! Four of the five were placed.
That year my DD (dear daughter) wanted to choose a French horse ridden by an Irish jockey so it was Liam Treadwell's fault that she didn't pick the winner - if he'd been Irish, she'd have picked Mon Mome and not My Will.
And on that same historic day in 2009, Glossop North End FC got through to the final of the FA Vase at Wembley! Tomorrow is my eldest son's birthday so the temptation to pick anything with Al in the name is very strong but will be resisted ! Anyway enough of the reminiscing and on to the important present day stuff.
When I announced in the kitchen a few days ago that Ruby Walsh would be riding On His Own, the whole family wanted to back him...then I pointed out this was the name of the horse not the manner in which he was racing!
Last Years Champ
I have it on good authority (thanks Jack) that Jason Maguire thinks Ballabriggs is a better horse than last year - even with the extra weight taken into account but at the end of a four and a half mile slog, every extra pound is going to feel like a stone. I think he'll place but he'll have a struggle to be first over that line tomorrow surely....then again it is a McCain horse at Aintree.
The Girlies
I (and every other female horseracing fan..and some men too!) would absolutely love Katie Walsh on Seabass or Nina Carberry on Organisedconfusion to win tomorrow.
Organisedconfusion won the Irish National last year but fell at the first on his penultimate run - a race which Seabass won. Now whilst Organisedconfusion's stamina is pretty much assured, his jumping ability is touch and go. Seabass has been dodgy over jumps in the past but seems to have this part of his game sussed now so the question now is whether or not he'll stay. His breeding suggests he could but to have the best chance of getting the trip would surely involve using this big field for some cover which in turn means a large helping of luck is required to avoid any big falley over things up front, Katie is no fool and will have studied, watched vids, studied, walked the course then studied some more so I think that this year is the best chance of a lady rider winning for the first time.
The McCoy Factor
Synchronised is bidding to become the first horse in 78 years to win both the Gold Cup and the Grand National. It would be a lovely achievement and you can never say never where McCoy is concerned (I swear he'd get off and carry the horse sometimes if he could) but my money won't be on Synchronised. He's a stayer alright but at top weight and needing (in my opinion) another two months to recover fully from his Gold Cup exertion, it'll be a training feat and then some for Jonjo if he wins this.
The Short List
You have to treat the National a little bit differently to any other race mainly because is is a lot different to any other race! Class is not a primary concern here - if a horse has won a graded race at Cheltenham over 2 miles, this is of no concern to me. If a horse has won going away over three and a half miles at Ffos Las without even touching a birch twig then this is good! Grinders not technicians...although a combination of both in the one horse would be good. For this reason, I have swiftly designated the dodgy jumpers and iffy stayers to the 'not today' pile and concentrated merely on those who have ever shown grit, some Aintree (or left handed fast flat track) form and bouncy staglike qualities. Which means my list swiftly condensed to 22 runners of which I've mentioned my final five below:
The Gamble
It would seem that the mon£y is all going on Sunnyhill Boy Friday night - almost three times as many bets as for the next horse! 2nd
Other Racing
I love the way that the other race meetings in the UK all leave a nice big gap in their card from 16:00 until 16:45 - what's the point in fighting it?
The Alternative Commentary
James May is providing a commentary for the National on the red button option on BBC1.
The Alternative Selecting Method
The Guardian have kindly provided a random GN pick generator for those who don't have an office sweepstake or the inclination or time to plough through forty runners and their form!
That year my DD (dear daughter) wanted to choose a French horse ridden by an Irish jockey so it was Liam Treadwell's fault that she didn't pick the winner - if he'd been Irish, she'd have picked Mon Mome and not My Will.
And on that same historic day in 2009, Glossop North End FC got through to the final of the FA Vase at Wembley! Tomorrow is my eldest son's birthday so the temptation to pick anything with Al in the name is very strong but will be resisted ! Anyway enough of the reminiscing and on to the important present day stuff.
When I announced in the kitchen a few days ago that Ruby Walsh would be riding On His Own, the whole family wanted to back him...then I pointed out this was the name of the horse not the manner in which he was racing!Last Years Champ
I have it on good authority (thanks Jack) that Jason Maguire thinks Ballabriggs is a better horse than last year - even with the extra weight taken into account but at the end of a four and a half mile slog, every extra pound is going to feel like a stone. I think he'll place but he'll have a struggle to be first over that line tomorrow surely....then again it is a McCain horse at Aintree.
The Girlies
Organisedconfusion won the Irish National last year but fell at the first on his penultimate run - a race which Seabass won. Now whilst Organisedconfusion's stamina is pretty much assured, his jumping ability is touch and go. Seabass has been dodgy over jumps in the past but seems to have this part of his game sussed now so the question now is whether or not he'll stay. His breeding suggests he could but to have the best chance of getting the trip would surely involve using this big field for some cover which in turn means a large helping of luck is required to avoid any big falley over things up front, Katie is no fool and will have studied, watched vids, studied, walked the course then studied some more so I think that this year is the best chance of a lady rider winning for the first time.
 |
| RIP Synchronised |
The McCoy Factor
Synchronised is bidding to become the first horse in 78 years to win both the Gold Cup and the Grand National. It would be a lovely achievement and you can never say never where McCoy is concerned (I swear he'd get off and carry the horse sometimes if he could) but my money won't be on Synchronised. He's a stayer alright but at top weight and needing (in my opinion) another two months to recover fully from his Gold Cup exertion, it'll be a training feat and then some for Jonjo if he wins this.
The Short List
You have to treat the National a little bit differently to any other race mainly because is is a lot different to any other race! Class is not a primary concern here - if a horse has won a graded race at Cheltenham over 2 miles, this is of no concern to me. If a horse has won going away over three and a half miles at Ffos Las without even touching a birch twig then this is good! Grinders not technicians...although a combination of both in the one horse would be good. For this reason, I have swiftly designated the dodgy jumpers and iffy stayers to the 'not today' pile and concentrated merely on those who have ever shown grit, some Aintree (or left handed fast flat track) form and bouncy staglike qualities. Which means my list swiftly condensed to 22 runners of which I've mentioned my final five below:
- West End Rocker is a horse who ticks a lot of boxes for me. He has won at Aintree and absolutely hosed up by 22 lengths in a listed race here on his last outing in December (goes well fresh), Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson (4 wins from 5 rides) know how to win around here and his stamina is not in question. The bit of rain that fell on Friday will be a bonus but he has also won on good ground. He'll need some luck in running style though (which he didn't get last year). Fell at 2nd
- On His Own on closer inspection isn't the no hoper that I initially had him down as. (As if you could ever call a Mullins trained horse ridden by Ruby Walsh a no-hoper!) He has never contested such a marathon distance before but breeding and his two previous completed starts suggest that he can last. He has a tendency to jump right which won't help here but overall his jumping should hold up and I can see him going off towards the front of the field. NB: Point of interest, he was owned by Andrea & Graham Wylie until two days ago Fell at 21st
- Cappa Bleu has proven he can jump with a decent 3rd at Ascot and he can stay with a less decent third at Chepstow (30f heavy) and is remarkably lightly raced for a ten year old so there should be plenty of mileage left in the engine but may just be on too high a mark to win. 4th
- Giles Cross will prefer that it rained all night - the more juice the better. Denis O'Regan has given up the ride as he is unable to make the (super light) weight even though the owners were happy enough for him to ride overweight, which is a great shame as from his four rides, O'Regan has won twice and came 2nd twice. Paddy Brennan takes over for the first time and he'll be down to within a pound off his lowest weight for a year. If I wake up in the morning to find it's been raining constantly then I'll be more optimistic for his chances but then again, he could do a Mon Mome and manage the extra distance with better ground! PU
- Ballabriggs has has an identical preparation to last year with a run at Kelso in early March. He's been kept fresh for defending his crown and will be peaking just in time. He is 10lbs higher than his last winning mark though and this may be enough to stop a fairytale return to the scene of his 2011 triumph. 6th
So those are my short list selections in that order and lets hope the winner is amongst them!
The GambleIt would seem that the mon£y is all going on Sunnyhill Boy Friday night - almost three times as many bets as for the next horse! 2nd
Other Racing
I love the way that the other race meetings in the UK all leave a nice big gap in their card from 16:00 until 16:45 - what's the point in fighting it?
The Alternative Commentary
James May is providing a commentary for the National on the red button option on BBC1.
The Alternative Selecting Method
The Guardian have kindly provided a random GN pick generator for those who don't have an office sweepstake or the inclination or time to plough through forty runners and their form!
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