Well there's nothing like a bit of positive thinking! After coming back home yesterday to find my house had been turned in to a film set (teenage son + movie project) with deadlines looking and with everyone's stress levels heading through the roof, I decided to abandon all hopes of a peaceful evening and start early this morning!
It's Chester Cup day then! Chester is the best course in the UK for people watching. Spray tans, low cut necklines, high hems (belts!) and even higher shoes make for some extraordinary sights.....especially at the end of the day! However, if you want to see the racing then you have to be up in the premier stands or owners and trainers otherwise you're likely to just see this much
Overturn is bidding to keep his Chester Cup today at 14:35 and become the first 8yo to win in a number of years. He prefers the top of the ground but has won on soft 'back in the day'. He also has a less than great draw this year (he was gifted the plum draw 1 last year) and is starting from the mid draw which is a nasty place to be on a sharp track like Chester. He's also likely to be taken on for the lead by Never Can Tell so I think he's up against it this year and I don't reckon we'll hear the RUK racecaller shouting "Overturn is hanging on grimly" when he's 3 lengths ahead of the field at the line this year! I love the horse but think a place is possibly best he can hope for this year
I'm concentrating on those drawn low (9 of the past 12 winners) and have already crossed Tominator off my shortlist as he's never won returning from a lay off (the claimer doesn't inspire confidence either - layoffs + claimers usually equal run needed in my book!).
Chester is a difficult track to ride so Dominic Fox claiming 3lb and having ridden here just three times with no winners isn't helping to persuade me that Shubaat will be first across the line.
On the subject of jockeys, Eddie Ahern (Overturn), Ryan Moore (Harrison's Cave) and Paul Mulrennan (Dazinski) have the best records here from this race. Dazinski is the only one of these three drawn low but another who would prefer a firmer surface however he is a course winner and has won back first time out back in April 2010. Harrison's Cave is drawn in the car park and Overturn has been mentioned above.
Barbican I think will definintely struggle to see out the 18 furlongs and has to carry top weight whereas Eternal Heart is untried on soft. His half brother Tajneed acts on it which gives some hope and he'll relish the trip up in distance and should be ridden just off the pace (another big plus here) so has possibilities. Finally Never Can Tell has no question marks over the trip, is a course winner, has Frankie up but is an unknown on soft. I shall stick with my theory that the going is dictated by the sire and as a Montjeu, I'd like to think that soft won't be a problem at all. Owner Dr Marwan Koukash loves to have winners at Chester and Haydock (his home tracks) and she is by far the form horse of the pair he has left in. His other runner Kiama Bay is drawn in the middle but does have a course win and form on soft to his name. The 18f will surely be a struggle though.
Final shortlist then:
Never Can Tell
Eternal Heart
Overturn
All pretty much hypothetical once the stalls were taken away and a flag start used! Any draw bias was then out of the window........nice McCain 1-2 though
Looking at the first race at Chester (5f), Tom Dascombe runs three in this (including Wayne Rooney's first ever runner Pippy) and there are four NRs to date - surprisingly their draws would have been 9, 10, 12, 13 !!!
Other Chester obs: small nimble horses are preferred but so are small jockeys with great balance! Joseph O'Brien may be using his long legs as stabilisers around the tight corners.....never underestimate Fran Berry's ability to win from a shocking draw here either!
Overturn is bidding to keep his Chester Cup today at 14:35 and become the first 8yo to win in a number of years. He prefers the top of the ground but has won on soft 'back in the day'. He also has a less than great draw this year (he was gifted the plum draw 1 last year) and is starting from the mid draw which is a nasty place to be on a sharp track like Chester. He's also likely to be taken on for the lead by Never Can Tell so I think he's up against it this year and I don't reckon we'll hear the RUK racecaller shouting "Overturn is hanging on grimly" when he's 3 lengths ahead of the field at the line this year! I love the horse but think a place is possibly best he can hope for this year
I'm concentrating on those drawn low (9 of the past 12 winners) and have already crossed Tominator off my shortlist as he's never won returning from a lay off (the claimer doesn't inspire confidence either - layoffs + claimers usually equal run needed in my book!).
Chester is a difficult track to ride so Dominic Fox claiming 3lb and having ridden here just three times with no winners isn't helping to persuade me that Shubaat will be first across the line.
On the subject of jockeys, Eddie Ahern (Overturn), Ryan Moore (Harrison's Cave) and Paul Mulrennan (Dazinski) have the best records here from this race. Dazinski is the only one of these three drawn low but another who would prefer a firmer surface however he is a course winner and has won back first time out back in April 2010. Harrison's Cave is drawn in the car park and Overturn has been mentioned above.
Barbican I think will definintely struggle to see out the 18 furlongs and has to carry top weight whereas Eternal Heart is untried on soft. His half brother Tajneed acts on it which gives some hope and he'll relish the trip up in distance and should be ridden just off the pace (another big plus here) so has possibilities. Finally Never Can Tell has no question marks over the trip, is a course winner, has Frankie up but is an unknown on soft. I shall stick with my theory that the going is dictated by the sire and as a Montjeu, I'd like to think that soft won't be a problem at all. Owner Dr Marwan Koukash loves to have winners at Chester and Haydock (his home tracks) and she is by far the form horse of the pair he has left in. His other runner Kiama Bay is drawn in the middle but does have a course win and form on soft to his name. The 18f will surely be a struggle though.
Final shortlist then:
Never Can Tell
Eternal Heart
Overturn
All pretty much hypothetical once the stalls were taken away and a flag start used! Any draw bias was then out of the window........nice McCain 1-2 though
Looking at the first race at Chester (5f), Tom Dascombe runs three in this (including Wayne Rooney's first ever runner Pippy) and there are four NRs to date - surprisingly their draws would have been 9, 10, 12, 13 !!!
Other Chester obs: small nimble horses are preferred but so are small jockeys with great balance! Joseph O'Brien may be using his long legs as stabilisers around the tight corners.....never underestimate Fran Berry's ability to win from a shocking draw here either!
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