Pinch And A Punch Tuesday Selections & Updates - 01 May

White Rabbits!  Not that I'm superstitious but that's the good luck for May attended to now.....

 

The new jumps season started on Sunday (shakes head in amazement) and as you all know AP is champion jockey for the 17th consecutive year and Henry Brooke became champion condition jockey....but for now (with just 2 full days passed),Sam Twiston-Davies shoudl glory in the fact that by virtue of his higher strike rate (100% 2 from 2) record so far, he is ahead of McCoy in the 2012/13 champion table!

After a full month, currently, Joe Fanning heads the flat jockeys' table (on a par with Ryan Moore at 16 wins apiece but has the higher % strike rate). Michael O'Connell is leading in the apprentice jockey race and (surprise surprise!) Hayley Turner leads the lady jockeys' table (10/51) ........although Kelly Harrison has the same strike rate of 20% with 2/10.

It'll be nice to see a couple of half decent races today where the best horse might win rather than the bookies as seemed to be the case yesterday!  

Mickael Barazalona is apparently travelling to Lingfield for one ride on Dark Ages for trainer George Baker in the claimer at 14:30.  Now I liked this horse (!) and had picked it out in that race regardless.  I can only think that (a) Barzalona will be at Lingfield as back up for Frankie Dettori's two rides on the card and that (b) he won't turn up if Frankie does.  Barzalona is off to Kempton later to ride for Godolphin - one ride on Muhamee in the 18:35

You may read reviews of races in respected journals (Racing Post, Sporting Life et al) who will  dismiss a horse running from a high draw at Kempton over a mile and a half (12f). I tend to IGNORE this!  I keep my own records and though a low draw is very much in favour up to 10f, over 12f, 36 of the past 67 winners (that's 53.73% compared to the average and expected 40%) have been drawn high.

Inauspicious start to the month with a -2.90 pt loss - better tomorrow!

	Ballinrobe	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	17:25	Run With The Wind 1st
2	17:55	Mullaghwillin Boy UP

2/         Fairymount Lord will go off favourite but I feel he needed every furlong of the 20f that he won over lto.  Mullaghwillin Boy will have come on for his last run and looks primed! 

So much for that theory then!

	Sedgefield	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	18:45	Karingreason 2nd	Carrietau (EW) UP (3rd)
2	19:15	The Thirsty Bricky  2nd	Alpha One UP

2/            The Thirsty Bricky has been hit with a penalty for his win lto but Tony Kelly takes off 7lbs of that (has won on him before) and I’m not as bothered about the weight rise as if it had been a galloping track.  Alpha One can do better now reunited with James Reveley sho partnered him for his only win.  I’m not convinced that Mon Chevalier wants 2 ½ miles !....he won grrrrr

	Kempton	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	19:35	Midnight Sequel UP	Fleur De La Vie (EW) 2nd

1/      I know it’s against my draw bias argument above, but Fallon’s record of 25% (25/110) on 3yo here at Kempton makes up for it all……