Wednesday's Witterings & Selections Updated (Profits)- 02 May

Harsh, very harsh!  The Racing Post's Question of the Day - "Can Sir Michael Stoute reverse his fortunes this Flat season?"  

This is all the gap that you need!

Yes, he had a 'lean' spell (but the flat season only started at the end of March!) but has recently had four  winners in the past 9 days which really isn't too shabby.  His strike rate for the past fortnight is a healthy 16% (36.36% for the past 9 days!) which quite a few high profile trainers would quite like to have right now (Channon 6% and Hannon 16%) - so surely his fortunes are already reversed?  Certainly, given the fact that his four winners in the last 9 days have all been maidens making their seasonal début - and in once case it's first appearance ever on a racecourse - then you have to think that he has a lot to look forward to this season!

Back to the racing today.  Does anyone remember good to firm?  If this rain and soft/heavy going continues all Britain's racehorses will be getting trenchfoot!  Kempton have put on an extra meeting to replace Ascots abandoned one and Southwell and Pontefract have survived early inspections.

At Southwell, then there's a fascinating clash at 16:30 between Shangani and Hawkhill.  It'll be a slog alright on this ground!  Shangani has the stamina and form on soft to but then again Hawkhill has won on soft on the flat and finished his last race cosily enough to think he has more in reserve than first thought.  Hawkhill does come top of all of my sheets (which are surprisingly accurate for 2m novice hurdles at Southwell!) but logic has persuaded me that proven stamina is a big plus today and so I've sided with Shangani and besides, we all know what happens if I back a Dickie Johnson ride (He should have me on a retainer never to back anything he rides - he'd have been champion jockey by now!) ......so now that I've thrown my lot in with Shangani, you know what'll happen! 

Southwell 16:30 Shangani.............SIGH!!

Mile races at Pontefract formula!    low drawn winners = 29/47 = 61.7%

Much better day today with profits of  +11.18 

	Kempton	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:00	Lyric Ace 1st
2	15:10	Saamidd 2nd	Scarf (EW) UP

1/      We know Lyric Ace likes RH as he won at Leicester and is the only runner in the field with a G1 entry  

2/     Saamidd will be returning from a year out with a hairline fracture - explaining the poor last race(s).  Another stable and you would be sure he’d need the run and he might ..but probably not.   Never underestimate the Godolphine 2’^nd string’ Scarf fared well on the AW in Meydan this winter and Silvestre is a demon on this course!

	Southwell	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	16:30	Shangani 3rd	Hawkhill (for the RF) 1st

	Pontefract	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	16:40	Eshaab 1st	Bollin Tommy (EW) UP

Notes:

1/         Sire is very high class Dynaformer (died 2 days ago - $150K a pop!) and has a half-brother who ran nicely over 10f heavy so looks as if he should handle the ground ok.  Bollin Tommy may or may not get the distance but is the likeliest contender for runner up.

	Cheltenham	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	17:00	Pistolet Noir	Rash Move (EW) 1st
2	19:20	Bradley 1st

Notes:

1/         Pistolet Noir it by far the most likely winner BUT he has fallen before and if the unthinkable should happen then I’ll be on Rash Move each way

Horsey name of the day today goes to Fat Gary (Pontefract 14:20) - he's in the same race as Mashed Potato !