The Good to Firm Sunday Blog - 27 May

Good to Firm all over ... Good to grief more like!  Only a fortnight ago dry weather seemed like a impossible dream.


On Friday a maiden called Dinkie ran at Catterick - she came 8th of 12.  Now this is a family nickname for my daughter and Dinkie (the horse)'s owner will have to pray that she doesn't take after her namesake Dinkie (the girl) who was born 18 days late and has never been on time since (work being an exception but this is necessary for shoe funds).   This race was won by Satsuma trained by David Brown - his second maiden débutante winner over 5f in recent days.  I've had a look and he does have Botanic Garden (run twice previously) running on Tuesday at Ripon in a 5f maiden which might be worth a second look.

Cathy Gannon was back with a bang this week.  She drew a blank from here two rides yesterday (Saturday) but had three winners on Thursday and Friday.  Three days with nine rides and three winners is a great come back after a few weeks away from the track with injury.  




In my daily quest for the winning gee gees, I have a check list that I work down once I've selected a horse in a race.  This determines if I back a horse and if so, then how much I stake.  If a horse is returning from a break of 90+ days with a claimer booked to ride then a line goes through it as in nearly all cases, the horse is having a pipe opener and the jockey is getting a bit more practise in,  Sounds obvious but easily forgotten or overlooked!


Johnny Murtagh lost his fourth place on Sindjara at the Curragh on Saturday for failing to weigh in.   Now he's not an apprentice nor is he inexperienced or unprofessional enough to have 'forgotten' to do this........ so there's only one explanataion......
He stopped for a toilet break half way round!  

My best picks today are:

	Curragh	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:35	So You Think 1st
2	15:40	La Collina UP
3	16:15	Battleroftheboyne UP

	Kelso	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:45	Carters Rest UP
2	15:20	Crowning Jewel 1st
3	16:25	Talk Of Saafend  2nd

	Fakenham	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:25	Well Mett UP

Sunday's Selections and updates - 25 September

A good (profits made of +4.33) but also a slightly frustrating day (see my review/selections below for the 16:30).  This frustration was further added to as no runners ticked all the boxes for my system today so I erred on the side of caution and left them alone.  Had I not, I'd have found two more winners (Producer and Record Breaker for the.....record!)  one at evens and the other at 7/2

Curragh

14:10  A 2yo maiden race – not anyone’s favourite but given the stat above, I thought it worth taking a look at although!  With such a large field of 25 runners, I believe that the experience of those who have previously raced will be more marked than usual – from these Lanett Lady and Shukhov stand out and both have decent draws.  Those who are unraced with possibilities are Wave and Nephrite.  You can’t read to much into the Ballydoyle jockey bookings as Joseph struggles to get below 9st but in this instance you’ve got to think he’s aboard the first string.  Both Wave and Nephrite hold group 1 entries for next year. Wave has an entry for Irish 1000 guineas and Nephrite has the full house (Derby, Irish 2000 Guineas, Dewhurst and Middle Park) so I cannot imagine that Nephrite won’t be more than ready to win this .   Others with eye catching entries are Mississippi, Big Blue Spirit (Tatts Millions) and Storm Lightening (Tatts Millions & Irish 2000 Guineas).  Although Storm Lightning appears to be the stable second string this may only be down to his draw and I shall be watching his run  closely with a view to his next race.

Nephrite (win)                                  6/1 1^st 

Lanett Lady (each way)                 7/1 4^th

Curragh

14:40 Queenie Keen – good draw, Johnny has picked the other Halford horse Snaefell but has a soft spot for it so don’t read much into that.  Queenie Keen loves it at the Curragh and regular partner Conor Hoban takes off 5lb.   She’s rested since mid August and should be good to go (in April she won first time back after 2 months rest)                                
14/1 UP (9^th)

Epsom

15:00  Tasfeya has raced here before and didn’t like the track at all – it’s surprising that the trainer has brought him back here and I can only imagine that he thinks Fallon with his superb record here can perform a miracle  (Saint Fallon of Epsom?)! 

Yojimbo looks outclassed here despite being a C&D winner. 

Norse Blues has won here at a better level – I can’t see him staying this extended mile which is a shame because he’s by far the best horse ... over 7f!

Dubawi Sound could be anything – he won his first and only race but handling this track with his inexperience is a concern and 6/5 is far too short a price to find out.

Orientalist looks good and is a C&D winner (I can’t understand why Fallon wasn’t booked for this ride though?) Having said that, he looks as though he needs some cut in the ground but then again you can find other excuses for not winning when he has run on good ground so is still worth each way consideration.

Our Gal is another worthy of consideration but untried on anything other than a galloping track.  She will be fine with the distance and going but the course is a big question mark!

This leaves Sure Route who is on her highest ever mark but has been progressing well enough to hope she can cope.  She has a good draw and Hughsie to help, likes the ground and should manage the dips and bends of Epsom, having just been denied at Windsor.

Sure Route   win                  10/3 1^st

Orientalist     each way         9/1  UP (5^th)

Musselburgh

16:30  Class 3, 1m, 3yo+ 0-90 Fillies Handicap

I love mile races at Musselburgh because they have the most pronounced draw bias know to mankind (well, that may be a slight exaggeration but 19 of the last 24 winners have drawn low (=79.19%).  Taking this into account, I have discounted those runner in stalls 5-11 and looked only at those drawn 1-4 – which may seem foolish to some but since I know I’ll discount them anyway because of the draw I won’t bother wasting time!

Neutrafa                                She looked as though Sandown was not her favourite place to be LTO and was far behind Metropolitan Miss.  However, she won from a terrible draw the time before that over a mile at Ripon and was clear by 6L.  She has Julie Burkes to claim 5lb but still looks outclassed in this field.  The trainer’s recent form isn’t so hot either but the plum draw makes her very tempting at 16/1 2nd 

Metropolitan Miss                 looks to be in the grip of the handicapper as well as seemingly preferring a more traditional course.  She managed a 3^rd at (similar course characteristics) Goodwood but is 7lb higher in a better contest today. 1st

Imaginary World                   Won under this rider LTO and carries 1lb less up in class.  Sharp tracks are not a worry nor are the right handed so although probably the most exposed of these, she has as good a chance as any here today and she should get the pace she needs for her running.

Izzy The Ozzy                       Would be great if this won given the vids below!  She’s reunited with Lee Newman (1^st and 2^nd when teaming up previously).  However she needs to leave a dire performance LTO behind her when last (60L) at Thirsk but could bounce back on this more suitable track.

Imaginary World       win                  9/2 UP (7^th)

Izzy The Ozzy          each way       10/1UP (9^th)

This was won by Metropolitain Miss (drawn 2) and Neutrafa came 2nd (drawn 1) - can you believe it???!!!  At least we know that the low draw over a mile at Muss is everything.

Epsom is the only track where the minute you introduce the bend (that is over 5f) the jockey skills here are one of the most important stats to take into account.  It's not only the horse that you want to have seen some proof that they handle the course.......I guess the next best test for a jockey is to stick him or her on the biggest rollercoaster at Alton Towers or Thorpe Park and see how straight they walk when getting off

A couple of Eddie Izzard's observations on horse riding and horseracing interpreted through the medium of Lego: 

135                   123                      120  

       56                        53                       25

Sunday's Selections & Results - 11 September

Selections (non system) so far:

Curragh 

14:10 Kingdomforthebride  (6.8) UP

17:20 Bewitched (2.9) 1st

(I have an each end of the card double of these two as well as single)

Goodwood 15:05 TurfTV Bonus Stakes, 1m1f192y, Class 4, 3yo+

As long as Fergus Sweeney keeps his head then this should be the perfect opportunity for Ken's Girl.  Conditions (soft) and distance are both fine and his two wins at Windsor would suggest that Goodwood track won't present a problem.  She has raced here twice before without placing but had excuses both times (stumbled out of the stall last time and a mile was too far early in her career).  She carries joint top weight but this doesn't worry me quite as much as if it was a galloping track where the weight tells more. 

If she does get in to a race for the lead with either African Cheetah or Mariners Lodge (both drawn nearby in the top half) then it could be set up for Loyaliste to take advantage.  

Kens Girl  win 9/2  UP

Loyaliste  each way 12/1 each way UP 

Ffos Las 16:30 Celtic Pride Handicap 1m 4f, class 3, 3yo+
Enroller has caught my eye in this.  He has finished well back in his last two starts but they were a pretty hot listed which came after a long long layoff and a Gr3 - so this drop down to a class 3 handicap is a whole lot more realistic from a decent draw.  Martin Dwyer is up for the ride and he rides this track very well.  The fact that he's still with the Muir stable (who are doing nicely at the moment) after that absence suggests that they have faith in him so at 15/2 I'll chance an each way 
Enroller   15/2  each way UP (3rd) 

System selections today are:

Goodwood

15:35   Paramour (3.1) UP

16:10   Valencha (2.62) 2nd

16:40   Pivotman (8.4) UP

17:15   Oneladyowner (4.4) 3rd

A couple of places but no winners so a -4 loss today :(

Misery Business - Paramore

Let's hope it isn't.........!!

126                    109                    108

      56                          50                     24