Melbourne Cup Selections & Updates – 01 November (Set The Alarm!)

Worth getting up for and what a finish!!  Dunaden wins on the nod and that HAS to be down to jockeyship  (viva La France).  Four picks and amongst them the winner and two places ....
Result

1. Dunaden
2. Red Cadeaux
3. Lucas Cranach
4. Americain
5. Manighar (some bookies paid 5 places!)

.........an alternative look at the Melbourne cup with a light-hearted selection process which has just as much chance of finding the winner as the serious stuff that has already been done by numerous others!

Stats

Whilst doing some homework for this race, I came across a couple of fascinating sites!  One written by an Aussie who called all of the horses “bloke” as in “this bloke just isn’t good enough” or “this bloke needs to grow another leg to win this”  The other was filled with stats from previous runnings but knowing that 66 bays but only 6 greys have won is not going to help me find a winner!  It was interesting to learn that the lowest weight winner was 33.5kg (5st 4lbs) in 1863 though....that winner must have been ridden by a child – probably yanked back down out of a chimney for the day!  Another interesting stat is that winners with odds of either 4/1, 5/1, 8/1 or 16/1 are the most likely winners and if the horses name begins with a T then this is also good stuff.  (There’s only Tullamore this year!)

One important factor that I noticed once I’d dug out my last year’s spreadsheet is that the first 3 had all improved on their placings in each of their last three runs and of the field, only one other had also done so.  This year seven fall into this category:  At First Sight, Jukebox Jury, Manighar, Mourayan, Precedence, Red Cadeaux, Tullamore.

Weather

On to the serious stuff!  The weather is settled (20% chance of a light shower and fairly breezy) so I think it’s safe to assume that he current going of good to soft won’t be changing radically. 

Draw

Draw wise, over the past 12 years the winners have (surprisingy) been evenly distributed over low, middle and high.  Being as the middle draw incorporates only 20% of runners, this is where the advantage lies with a larger than expected 33% of winners.  Mid draw in 2011 means stalls 11-14 or Lucas Cranach, Dunaden, Mourayan and Tullamore (that name again!).

Horses & Courses

Mark Johnston has said that he’d rather a jockey that knows the horse than a jockey that knows the track.  A sensible statement in my opinion (and the reason that De Sousa has been sweet talked away from the jockey title chase to ride Fox Hunt).  A good jockey can walk the course and figure it out but you can’t walk a horse and figure it out so quickly.  This means that any horse ridden by a ‘new’ jockey is going to have to be exceptionally talented in my eyes to be considered as a likely winner.

Down Under

With a prize of £2,467,320, it’s no wonder that so many overseas horses have made the journey to Melbourne (11 of the 24).  The Aussie trainers have been heard to have a little whinge about the unfair advantage that European horses in the way of stamina in the breeding.  True but then again a 50 hour journey to a strange place will even that up surely?  I’m still not convinced Qantas haven’t had their union funds topped up by Bart Cummings –Buick took from Friday to Monday to reach Melbourne going the scenic and non-Qantas route!

Snakes

Just throwing in the observation just made by my (non-racing and Ophidiophobic) husband.  “Who makes sure there aren’t any snakes sneaking in to the stables?” 

...........so I’m looking for an improving horse, drawn 11-14, odds of 4/1, 5/1, 8/1 or 16/1, name beginning with T, whose jockey knows him reasonably well and who hasn’t been bitten by a snake!

My selections (and I’m going for the full four places here and they really aren’t based on lack of snake bites!) are: 

•  Tullamore UP
•  Dunaden  1st
•  Lucas Cranach 3rd
•  Americain 4th

If these four go off at 16/1, 5/1, 8/1 and 4/1 then we're on to something ........

Two that may do better than their prices suggest (without winning?) are Manighar (5th) in first time blinkers and Unusual Suspect (UP) who was given a terrible ride LTO and is better than that!

My alarm is set for 03:45, the coffee machine is primed and we're good to go ...