Tuesday’s Selections & Results (02 August)

The story from Freddie Head today is that Goldikova may line up to Frankel in the QE2 at Ascot in October.  It’s a match I’d love to see (Frankel would win in my opinion) but I really cannot imagine it happening just 3 weeks before Goldi is supposed to be running at the Breeders Cup Mile chasing an historic 4^th win.

Silvestre Da Sousa is now joint first in the jockeys’ championship table with Hanagan after todays heroic efforts saw him dragging a few donkeys away from Blackpool for long enough to win on them at Ripon.  My tiny 33/1 bet on him winning this year is beginning to look pretty good!  It won’t make me a millionaire but the bragging rights far surpass mere cash.  However, I do think it would be unwise to underestimate Kieren Fallon, who is just 14 wins behind the leaders  and may well feel that this year is his last realistic chance of bagging the title for a 7^th time – although age and one or two owners may be against him!  

It’s perhaps unsurprising that there are noticeably few runners at Bath tomorrow given the problems (and I use that word loosely) with the last bend that saw the meeting on the 08 July abandoned after Aviso slipped and fell.  All races over 5f 161y were postponed until the track was rectified.  I know that they reinstated the longer races last week but If I was an owner, trainer or jockey then I would be wanting to see it tested for a while longer before feeling at all confident.  On the other side of the coin, it’s nice to see that Ffos Las is having a fair turnout these days and seems now to be well established if a tad remote –unless you live in Wales of course!

Here’s a nice juicy Southwell pointer... Over 77% of winners over 5f have been placed here before. 

On to my selections which are up early the night before as I have every confidence (insert alternative word here – hope/prayer?) that the prices will be a hammered a little shorter by late morning:

Bath

14:45     Laverre (4.3) UP

15:45     Beauty Pageant (2.7) 1^st

Catterick

14:30     Drop The Hammer (7.2) UP

15:00     North Central (6.6) 2^nd

16:30     Eijaaz (2.7) 1^st

Ffos Las

19:40     Whipphound (7.8) UP

Southwell

18:20     Paper Dreams (3.05) UP

19:30     Think Its All Over (4.5) 2^nd

20:35     Clever Omneya (7) 1^st

Broke even today 3 winners and 0 pts Nul Points

Catterick 17:00 (3yo Handicap 7f Class 6 )

Not the most enticing race at first glance (or second or third) but one where I think I have spotted a potential radar ducker! 

Poppy’s Rocket has come to Marjorie Fife from Brian Ellison this May (new owner = husband).  This trainer has a very good record at Catterick with 3yo (20% strike rate) with Duran Fentiman on board who rode LTO (16% strike rate here on 3yo).  The 7f and the good to firm would look to be an more appealing combination than those of previous runs - together with a super feather weight of 8-3. 

Now the maths!  From the last 7 winners of 7f races at Catterick, 6 of these have been trained by a ‘top 3’ trainer (for the age group in the race).  In this race, this means Fife, Tomkins (NR), and O’Meara.  5 of these have been ridden by one of the top 3 jockeys (for the age group in the race) – Fentiman is one of these 3 (other two are Hanagan and Tudhope).  Another factor to throw in the pot is the draw.  A slight bias towards low over 7f is also in favour and first time cheekpieces could make a difference.

The obvious contender in this race is Twennyshortkid (4/1) Hanagan’s mount but at a big price of 33/1, I am taking a each way chance with Poppy’s Rocket …..and a saver on Twennyshortkid.