Friday, 25 November 2011

Saturday Hennessy Day Selections & Results - 26 November

Cue Card got mugged yesterday (but then he was giving 7lb to Bob's Worth), Ranjaan was comprehensively beaten by Urbain Di Sivola (Hugh Tayl or tipped this up) and most definitely needed the experience, Mono Man hit the last flight and that did for him ....and my list of "next time outs" is growing ever longer!  
Paul Hanagan had four rides at Wolves after a well deserved 3 weeks holiday ....and won on three of them - including a 16/1 shot, demonstrating why he became champ for the 2nd year.






I have made progress with my Xmas wishlist (The RP calendar being at the top if you recall)......someone with very neat girlie handwriting has added "subtle like a wrecking ball" to the bottom.....so at least I know it's been read.  The only problem is that everyone else in the house thinks it's a great idea to have a list on the fridge and now my list is struggling for white frontage space.


Edwina Currie turned on our towns Christmas Lights last night (Friday) - apparently there was a teenage FaceBook plot to egg her.....I've had to explain to my two teenagers what the egg connotation was about which sort of leads to the impression that no other teenagers won't know either!




Hennessy Gold Cup


In big races, before looking through each horses form I like to take a quick look at previous winners and see if I can glean any useful stats from this.   
  1. Eight of the past ten winners have been aged 6 or 7 which clears half the field
  2. Look for a top trainer - smaller stables don't have such a good record
  3. The biggest priced winners in the last 10 years has been 25/1 (Pipe trained Madison Du Berlais in 2008)
  4. This either wants to be the first outing of the season (since March or April) or the 2nd run following a seasonal debut within 28 days (28 Oct)
  5. Only three of the past ten winners haven't won either here or at Cheltenham before (i.e. they're solid good jumpers!)
  6. Just three SP favourites have won in the past 10 years
........stats alone would narrow it the field down to Aiteen Thirtythree (11th)Wayward Prince (PU)Great Endeavour (4th) & Billie Magern (PU) (if he shortens in price).  I'll pick my 'proper' final form pick in the morning (see below)....but I'm erring towards Aiteen Thirtythree




1833 was a good year for (1) abolishing slavery and (2) the factory act which laid down the law re. working hours and child labour




Peddlers Cross will win the first at Bangor today - he is my favourite horse so the result is not up for discussion!  It would take Godzilla wearing a tutu and speaking Klingon, descending from a blue cloud with a giant robotic claw to pluck him from the racecourse to stop him winning (only my opinion of course!) 1st of course!



7 races and 5 winners - some were short enough but I combined a few (quite a few!) and made some decent returns today.  On level win only stakes however it returns -1.34.


Newbury
First Choice
Danger
1
14:05
Titan De Sarti UP
Rumble Of Thunder UP
2
14:35
Big Bucks 1st
Sparky May UP
3
15:10
Aiteen Thirtythree UP
Great Endeavour 4th
Notes:
1/             With question marks over Empire Levant (turned out very soon) and Rock On Ruby & Dream Function  (both better over  further?)I’m going with these two (RofT would be first choice if not for stable not hitting form yet)  
2/             A buying money race (same notes apply to Big Bucks as to Peddlers Cross above!)  – looking for the runner up is the only challenge and I’ll take the chance that Sparky may will settle better – after all Kieran Burke knows the horse as well any anyone!
3/             Only worry with Aiteen Thirtythree is that all wins have been in smaller fields but with Ruby aboard to help, this really isn’t much of a worry at all and is proven over this distance.  Great Endeavour should stay, his fail at Aintree over this distance could be put down to the run coming only 3 weeks after falling the prev outing.


Newcastle
First Choice
Danger
1
14:20
Celestial Halo UP
Overturn 1st
2
15:30
Hey Big Spender 1st
Categorical PU
Notes:
1/         Binocular has looks disenchanted with racing the past couple of outings, this is more Celestial Halo’s distance than Overturns


Bangor
First Choice
Danger
1
14:25
Peckhamecho (nap) 1st
Zahirah Moon UP



Towcester
First Choice
Danger
1
14:45
Valid Point 1st
C’Monthehammers UP 

A very good day for a few multiples!



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