Wednesday's Saintly Selections & Updates (Profits) - 04 April

Maybe if Half A Billion had been One Billion, it would have finished first instead of second!  Another day, another dollar...as they say (just not half a billion of them).  


The trusty all weather is providing some consistency on the flat at the moment - at least until the maidens, 2yo and seasonal débutantes have all made their appearances.  Of course, some horses are at their best fresh and some stables (Mark Johnston springs to mind) can ready one first time out as easily as I can burn toast.....  everyone in our house believes that the round plastic boxes fitted to all the ceilings are part of a communal alarm that sounds every morning at 07:30!  
Sales prices don't always mean a lot either - look at Red Hand!  425,000 Gns for third place in a class 5 maiden at Lingfield last Friday.  But there's nothing like a challenge and the self satisfaction (who said smugness at the back?!) of spotting something that leads you to picking a big priced winner.  Now where to start...

My Nightly nap shares a name with Saint Thomas Aguinas - the patron saint of academics (not of using birds as cotton buds!) :

Santo Thomas

Hereford 15:40
2nd

A small profit today and another 2nd for the nap!  + 0.43 pt profit with four winners.

	Exeter	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:20	American Cricket 1st
2	15:20	Jive Master 2nd
3	16:20	Loden (EW) UP

Notes:

1/            American Cricket’s closest threat will be from My Viking Bay – who is likely to prefer a bigger field to have something to chase and also more cut in the ground as all his placings have had the word soft in the going description.

2/            Jive Master will like the ground, the right handedness(!) and should be fine on this first run since October (he won his first ever appearance NH Flat last June and Vaughan stable is going great guns just now.  Ugo is likely to struggle with this trip on a more testing track!

3/            Loden’s owner also has Call Back, Edge Of Town and (best of all) Amron Lad – all winners - with McCain so it’s tempting to believe there is a reason they keep persevering with Loden. I’m willing to go each way as he’s slowly improving and hope he’ll follow Dukes Art home …or better!

	Lingfield	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	15:00	Muarrab 1st	Fauran (EW) UP

Notes:

1/            Further for my mutterings in the first paragraph of this blog about sales prices, Muarrab cost 280,000 Gns and came 6^th in his first outing!  That was a class 2 at Goodwood though and another year, a drop of 3 grades and a pedigree that is very conducive to the AW should make this a bit easier!  Fauran is unraced but again, has the breeding to suggest that AW is her game and Clive Brittain can have her ready so each way for me (watch the penny drop on the home straight….!)

	Hereford	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	15:40	Santo Thomas 2nd	Fidelor (EW) NR

	Wolves	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	19:00	Apothecary  1st	Spirit Of The Law (EW) UP

	Dundalk	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	20:20	The Fonze UP
2	21:15	Ursa Major 1st

Don't forget to check out today's badASS racing picks at Speedy Equines

Tuesday's Lucky Escapes (& Profits) - 27 March

Yesterday was a day of lucky escapes!  Adam Beschizza was very lucky to walk away with nothing more than a bloody nose when his mount Aurens in the Lingfield maiden swerved violently to the right giving him no chance of staying in the saddles and Bob Baffert was rushed to hospital in Dubai during the early hours with a heart attack (no prior history) and is recovering nicely after surgery.

In the first at Hereford tomorrow there runs a horse called Constant Contact which is owned by Delboy & Rodney - what an excellent name for a syndicate/partnership!.....and it won!!

I'll concentrate on Hereford first and foremost as my strike rate here is 42.67% (compared to 32.81% for Market Rasen) If time, I'll study the MR card and add some selections later in the morning....

An excellent day with profits of +13.04 (76.70%)

	Hereford	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:10	Plenty Pocket UP	Out Of Nothing (EW) UP
2	14:40	Family Three UP	DJ Milan (EW) 1st
3	15:40	Western Kate F	Mrs Peacock 1st
4	16:10	Truckers Benefit 3rd
5	16:40	Scotsbrook Cloud UP

1/         Plenty Pocket should have too much class for this lot but Out Of Nothing should do better this time out with a professional aboard (and Sam TD has as good a record here as any riding in this race).  If he shoots off to the front then he might just be able to stay up there and hang in for a place with such a light weight

2/         DJ Milan fell LTO when in contention but he may need this run to restore confidence

3/         Western Kate is borderline with the penalty and Mrs Peacock will have needed the run LTO.  Both trainer/jockey have a great record here and it would be a surprise if Tim Vaughan (stable now coming back to form) hasn’t been able to bring her on after leaving Norma Twomey.

	Market Rasen	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:20	Osgood UP
2	14:50	Presenting Ace UP
3	15:20	Midnight Sail  2nd	O Crotaigh 1st
4	16:20	Knox Overstreet UP

1/         Had the going been softer, then the choice would have been Langley but its not!

2/         The only question mark I have over Presenting Ace is how he’ll handle this track – otherwise he ticks all boxes!

3/         Midnight Sail will enjoy the return to distance and going (won last time current conditions were combined) and course specialist (4 runs here = 3 wins and a 2^nd) O Crotaigh might be able to follow home.

4/         Tekthelot is attractive but recent stable form is not.  Know Overstreet has a penalty but is improving rapidly enough to overcome this (and Channon is starting to turn out some jumps winners lately too!)

	Southwell	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	16:30	Storm Hawk 1st	Admiral Duque UP

Out Of Nothing 

(substitute where for thing and you have a great and relevant tune!!)

Hereford 14:10

84            83

I've put Day 5 of the trial selection system picks on a different page (see the tabs above) to save cluttering up the blog.......if this trial pans out then I'll pop it back on the main posty page!

Monday's Select Few & Updates - 05 March

I reckon the IHB name checkers were on holiday when connections of Forced Kin got his name passed.  I love it - the race callers will not!  


Pared back blogs will be the order this week as CheltFest approaches and I spend more study time on next week's racing.  

It would appear that there are only two with a chance in the 14:15 at Hereford despite the large field and they are Medinas and Twirling Magnet.  I've opted for Medinas by virtue of his better placing over this distance and only 4lb more on his back in contrast to Twirling Magent's 8lb (although he does have McCoy up there too!)


Well the nap won and that was it!  Terfel's Toscar most definitely needed the run after almost 2 yrs off the track and the other three....well!  Loss today of -3.  It's probably a good idea this week for me to just select a nap as I'm not able to give the races/selections the consideration they deserve this week.

	Hereford	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:15	Medinas 1st
2	14:45	Terfel’s Toscar UP
3	15:15	Qaspal UP
4	16:15	Missionaire UP
5	16:45	Made In Time UP

Medinas
Hereford 
14:15
1st