Gold Cup Cheltenham Festival Day 4 - 16 March

My blog which I had scheduled to publish this morning didn't schedule or publish - never mind though because it's Gold Cup time!  


Is there anyone in the country who doesn't want Kauto Star to win....it makes it considerably difficult to look objectively at the race as I tend to overcompensate for my heart by being harder on him than I should.  I cannot help but think (as does most everyone I speak to) that some new and unconsidered runner may grab the spoils...it would be nice if this was Weird Al (previous blog nap!)  I'm not too concerned about the Nicholls yard form as Kauto Star is housed in a satellite (segregated) yard together with Big Bucks, Rock On Ruby and others so hasn't been affected but the same 'air'.  It's going to be such a fascinating race to watch regardless of the outcome and as long as they all come home safely then picking the winner will be an added bonus.

Poor Peddler's Cross - he's such a game horse and that obviously wasn't his true running today.  I'm glad that Don McCain has seen fit to admit defeat with the chasing game (and with it any Gold Cup hopes) and will send him back over hurdles next season - let's hope we see the 'real' Peddlers back then.

Triumph Hurdle
I had backed Grumeti antepost in this (plus a little on Dodging Bullets each way at a big price more in hope of a place than expectation of a win)...however!  I have warmed considerably to Pearl Swan- stats wise he ticks all the boxes but does have the disadvantage (at the moment) of being from Nicholls yard...but which part?


Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
A cavalry charge with the winner needing a jockey with wits about him and a lot of luck!  I have a soft spot for any past blog nap so Magnifique Etoile has been given careful consideration but I don't think he's up to this!  Olofi however is back as close as damn it to a winnable mark and has a good 2nd last November here in the Greatwood so passes the 'big field' test.  Court In Session could get in the places at a big price back hurdling.


Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (aka the Potato Race!)
Although Sea Of Thunder fell when he last ran here (6 lengths in front at the time), he has had a confidence restoring run since then and should perform today.  I was on Rocky Creek antepost but that was before the poor form of the stable.  Brindisi Breeze looks as though he needs more juice - although he had placed on good ground and his breeding suggests he should run well on this today.  Boston Bob is obviously a worth favourite.  He's another though who appears to need soft in the going description but in his case I would say that his breeding definitely suggests he needs it.  


Gold Cup
I will confess that I cannot look at this race at all objectively!  I'd love to be able to tip up the winner (kudos) but my heart says Kauto Star (like everyone's) and my head says Long Run.  Burton Port, Weird Al, Midnight Chase, Synchronised and What A Friend are all shortlist material but I'd have Midnight Chase (Dougie is 5/5 here on him) for 3rd.  Let it be know that I shall cry if/when Kauto wins.

	Cheltenham	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	13:30	Grumeti 3rd	Pearl Swan F
2	14:05	Olofi UP	Court In Session  UP
3	14:40	Brindisi Breeze 1st	Sea Of Thunder UP
4	15:20	Kauto Star PU	Long Run 3rd
5	16:40	Bourne  UP
6	17:15	De Boitron UP	Toubab F

I have my brain engaged in some serious study for tomorrow and am getting stuck into the cards tomorrow but my nightly nap (severely lacking this week) has to be a previous blog nap - Bourne in the Martin Pipe at 16:40.  I backed him a short while ago at 10.16 so here's hoping!


More of the same in the morning after an early night to recharge batteries ......

Saturday's Betfair Chase Day Selections & Updates- 19 November

Well after feeling like 'death with a headache' all of yesterday and the night before, it didn't affect my Kempton picking (or perhaps I just got lucky!) and 20 minutes skimming through the card to put a placepot on was well spent when I won a line - four of the races had no favourites placed which made for a larger than average return.  Straight into the Cheltenham fund.....




Betfair Chase


Three years ago in 2008 this was won by a Peter Bowen runner, Snoopy Loopy who took advantage when Kauto Star unseated Ruby when vying for the lead.  He runs Pure Faith today but this horse doesn't have the credentials that Snoopy Loopy had and I think it's safe to say, can be easily discounted.  Ruby says not to underestimate Kauto Star but I feel his glory days are behind him now - although I wouldn't be unhappy if he won and I hadn't backed him!  This race is all about Long Run in my opinion and unless he suffers a Kauto Star type fate, I don't think he'll be looking at any of the other runners when he reaches the winning post.  There's been some talk about him not being so hot on his seasonal reappearance last year but that was over too short (2 and half miles) and this is his distance.  Diamond Harry is the next favourite in the betting but I'd have liked to see more rain for him and he returns after the longest absence from a race track that he's ever had.  Weird Al is my pick for the runner up although it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility for Time For Rupert to have come on for the run LTO and turn the tables here.    

Just on the edge of profit today for win only stakes (well in profit if backing the each way prices though) -0.46

	Lingfield	First Choice	Danger
1	11:40	Emerald Smile UP (4th)	Accustomed UP
2	14:25	Shieldmaiden UP	Call To Reason UP
3	15:00	Lenny Bee 2nd	Island Legend 3rd

Notes:

2/             I’m not convinced that the surface suits Call To Reason but she couldn’t have met more trouble LTO if she’d tried.  Shieldmaiden is perfectly draw to make all and stamina is assured.

	Haydock	First Choice	Danger
1	12:15	Grandouet (1.61) 1st	Domtaline UP (3rd)
2	12:50	Any Given Day(12.69)1st	Arthurian Legend UP4th
3	13:55	According To Pete UP	Morning Moment 2nd
4	14:30	Rival D’Estruval UP	Highland Valley UP
5	15:05	Long Run 2nd	Weird Al UP
6	15:40	Killyglen 3rd	Gansey UP

Notes:

1/             Grandouet took a very heavy fall LTO and this tempers enthusiasm a tad but should still have the class to win this.  The (cl2) race that Domtaline won LTO wasn’t as strong as this and he isn’t the most fluent hurdler.  Marsh Warbler would be much more interesting if there’d been some rain.

2/             The fact that stable No.1 Jason Maguire is at Ascot to ride Overturn and not at Haydock to ride the same owner’s Any Given Day (and Weird Al!) is a little disconcerting – although Henry Brooke has won on him before – and he’s on a high mark right now but the drop back down to 2m4f will be in his favour. Arthurian Legend’s chances rest on which side of the stable he got out of this morning!

3/             Morning Moment could do with less juice.

4/             Highland Valley trainer, Emma Lavelle is in the form of her life but I have a question mark over his ability to stay this far – if he’s strengthened up over the summer and does then he’ll be hard to beat but I’ve opted for proven Rival D’Estruval.

5/             See above

6/             Killyglen has the help of AP today – 3 from 5 for the stable.  Gansey has to prove he’ll get the trip.

	Ascot	First Choice	Danger
1	13:00	GraduationNight(5.24)1st	Bishopshill Jack PU
2	15:20	Dan Breen UP	Anquetta F

There are two types of horse I tend to avoid when picking selections in hurdling or chasing and that is runners in novice hurdles or chases who have never raced in that discipline before (unless from a top top yard such as Nicholls or Henderson's and with an exemplary previous hurdling or flat record) and runners who fell LTO (I always feel their confidence will need restoring but exceptions would be when they are entered into a much lower grade than would normally be seen) and Grandouet is that exception today.

Preferably in that order..............

A Handful of  Wolves picks tonight (Mad fool!  Too many maidens and 2 year olds!) but for the craic here we go:

18:20  Adranian 2nd

18:50  Leenavesta 2nd

19:20  Pendragon UP

19:50  Prince Alzain 1st

 each way or win depending on prices.