Betfair Chase
Three years ago in 2008 this was won by a Peter Bowen runner, Snoopy Loopy who took advantage when Kauto Star unseated Ruby when vying for the lead. He runs Pure Faith today but this horse doesn't have the credentials that Snoopy Loopy had and I think it's safe to say, can be easily discounted. Ruby says not to underestimate Kauto Star but I feel his glory days are behind him now - although I wouldn't be unhappy if he won and I hadn't backed him! This race is all about Long Run in my opinion and unless he suffers a Kauto Star type fate, I don't think he'll be looking at any of the other runners when he reaches the winning post. There's been some talk about him not being so hot on his seasonal reappearance last year but that was over too short (2 and half miles) and this is his distance. Diamond Harry is the next favourite in the betting but I'd have liked to see more rain for him and he returns after the longest absence from a race track that he's ever had. Weird Al is my pick for the runner up although it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility for Time For Rupert to have come on for the run LTO and turn the tables here.
Just on the edge of profit today for win only stakes (well in profit if backing the each way prices though) -0.46
Lingfield
|
First Choice
|
Danger
|
|
1
|
11:40
|
Emerald Smile UP (4th)
|
Accustomed UP
|
2
|
14:25
|
Shieldmaiden
|
Call To Reason
|
3
|
15:00
|
Lenny Bee 2nd
|
Island Legend 3rd
|
Notes:
2/ I’m not convinced that the surface
suits Call To Reason but she couldn’t have met more trouble LTO if she’d
tried. Shieldmaiden is perfectly draw to
make all and stamina is assured.
Haydock
|
First Choice
|
Danger
|
|
1
|
12:15
|
Grandouet (1.61) 1st
|
Domtaline UP (3rd)
|
2
|
12:50
|
Any Given Day(12.69)1st
|
Arthurian Legend
|
3
|
13:55
|
According To Pete
|
Morning Moment
|
4
|
14:30
|
Rival D’Estruval
|
Highland Valley
|
5
|
15:05
|
Long Run
|
Weird Al
|
6
|
15:40
|
Killyglen 3rd
|
Gansey
|
Notes:
1/ Grandouet took a very heavy fall
LTO and this tempers enthusiasm a tad but should still have the class to win
this. The (cl2) race that Domtaline won
LTO wasn’t as strong as this and he isn’t the most fluent hurdler. Marsh Warbler would be much more interesting
if there’d been some rain.
2/ The fact that stable No.1 Jason Maguire
is at Ascot to ride Overturn and not at Haydock to ride the same owner’s Any
Given Day (and Weird Al!) is a little disconcerting – although Henry Brooke has
won on him before – and he’s on a high mark right now but the drop back down to
2m4f will be in his favour. Arthurian Legend’s chances rest on which side of
the stable he got out of this morning!
3/ Morning Moment could do with less
juice.
4/ Highland Valley trainer, Emma
Lavelle is in the form of her life but I have a question mark over his ability
to stay this far – if he’s strengthened up over the summer and does then he’ll
be hard to beat but I’ve opted for proven Rival D’Estruval.
5/ See above
6/ Killyglen has the help of AP today –
3 from 5 for the stable. Gansey has to
prove he’ll get the trip.
Ascot
|
First Choice
|
Danger
|
|
1
|
13:00
|
GraduationNight(5.24)1st
|
Bishopshill Jack PU
|
2
|
15:20
|
Dan Breen
|
Anquetta F
|
There are two types of horse I tend to avoid when picking selections in hurdling or chasing and that is runners in novice hurdles or chases who have never raced in that discipline before (unless from a top top yard such as Nicholls or Henderson's and with an exemplary previous hurdling or flat record) and runners who fell LTO (I always feel their confidence will need restoring but exceptions would be when they are entered into a much lower grade than would normally be seen) and Grandouet is that exception today.
A Handful of Wolves picks tonight (Mad fool! Too many maidens and 2 year olds!) but for the craic here we go:
18:20 Adranian 2nd
18:50 Leenavesta 2nd
19:20 Pendragon UP
19:50 Prince Alzain 1steach way or win depending on prices.
